Why Trump Achieved a Breakthrough in the Middle East Yet Struggles With Putin Concerning the Ukraine Conflict

Trump and Putin's planned talks on the near four-year war in Ukraine have been put on hold
Trump and Vladimir Putin's planned talks on the near lengthy conflict in the region have been put on hold.

Reports of an upcoming US-Russia leadership summit have been greatly exaggerated, it seems.

Just days after Donald Trump announced he intended to confer with Russia's leader Vladimir Putin in the Hungarian capital - "within two weeks or so" - the summit has been suspended indefinitely.

A initial meeting by the both countries' leading diplomats has been called off, too.

"I don't want to have a fruitless discussion," Donald Trump informed reporters at the White House on Tuesday afternoon. "I aim to avoid a waste of time, so I will observe what transpires."
  • Trump says he did not want a 'wasted meeting' after arrangement for negotiations with Putin postponed
  • Letdown in Kyiv as Zelensky departs Washington empty-handed

The on-again, off-again meeting is just the latest development in the president's efforts to mediate an end to war in the Eastern European nation – a topic of increased attention for the American leader after he arranged a ceasefire and prisoner exchange deal in Gaza.

During a speech in Egypt last week to celebrate that ceasefire agreement, Trump addressed his lead diplomatic negotiator, with a fresh directive.

"It is essential to get Russia done," he said.

Nonetheless, the conditions that aligned to make a Gaza breakthrough possible for the negotiation team may be difficult to replicate in a conflict in Ukraine that has been raging for almost several years.

Less Leverage

According to Witkoff, the crucial element to unlocking a deal was the Israeli government's move to strike representatives of Hamas in the Gulf state. It was a action that angered US partners in the Arab world but gave Trump leverage to compel Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu into reaching an agreement.

Trump benefited from a history of siding with the Israeli state since his first term, encompassing his choice to relocate the US embassy to Jerusalem, to change US policy on the lawfulness of Israeli settlements in the West Bank and, in recent times, his support for Israeli defense operations against the Islamic Republic.

The American leader, actually, is better regarded among the Israeli public than Netanyahu – a position that gave him special sway over the Israeli leader.

Combine the president's connections in politics and business to key Arab players in the region, and he had a wealth of negotiating strength to secure an agreement.

In the Ukraine war, on the other hand, the president has significantly reduced influence. Over the past nine months, he has vacillated between efforts to strong-arm the Russian president and then Zelensky, all with minimal visible progress.

The US leader has warned to impose additional penalties on Russia's oil and gas sales and to supply the Ukrainian forces with new long-range weapons. But he has also recognised that such actions could harm the global economy and further escalate the conflict.

Meanwhile, the president has publicly berated Zelensky, temporarily cutting off intelligence-sharing with the country and pausing arms shipments to the country - only to then retreat in the wake of concerned European allies who caution a Ukrainian collapse could destabilise the entire region.

Trump often boasts about his skill to sit down and hammer out deals, but his face-to-face meetings with the Russian and Ukrainian leaders have not appeared to move the war any nearer a peaceful end.

Trump and Putin's meeting in August yielded no concrete results
Trump and Vladimir Putin's summit in the summer yielded no concrete results.

The Russian president may in fact be using the US leader's wish for a settlement – and faith in direct negotiations - as a means of influencing him.

In July, Putin agreed to a high-level meeting in Alaska at the time when it appeared likely that the president would sign off on legislative penalties supported by Senate Republicans. That legislation was afterwards put on hold.

Last week, as reports spread that the US administration was seriously contemplating shipping long-range missiles and air defense systems to Kyiv, the Russian leader phoned Trump who then promoted the possible meeting in Budapest.

The following day, Trump hosted Zelensky at the White House, but departed without agreements after a allegedly strained discussion.

The US leader insisted that he was not being manipulated by Putin.

"As you are aware, I've been played throughout my career by the best of them, and I came out successfully," he said.
Sequence of events in Ukraine diplomacy

But the Ukrainian leader later commented on the timeline of developments.

"Once the matter of long-range mobility became a little further away for us – for our nation – the Russian side almost automatically became less interested in negotiations," he said.

So, in a matter of days, the president has shifted from entertaining the prospect of providing weapons to Ukraine to planning a meeting in Hungary with Russia's leader and confidentially pressuring the Ukrainian president to cede all of Donbas – even territory Russian forces has been failed to capture.

He has ultimately settled on advocating a ceasefire along present frontlines – something the Russian government has refused to accept.

On the campaign trail previously, the candidate vowed that he could resolve the conflict in Ukraine in a very short time. He has subsequently abandoned that commitment, saying that ending the hostilities is proving more difficult than he expected.

It has been a rare acknowledgement of the limits of his authority – and the difficulty of finding a framework for peace when neither side wants, or is able to, give up the fight.

Donald Nelson
Donald Nelson

A passionate gamer and writer specializing in adventure RPGs, sharing experiences and guides to enhance your gaming journey.

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