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Voting has commenced for parliamentary elections in the Netherlands, with recent surveys indicating that the anti-immigration leader Geert Wilders and his PVV party could once again win the most seats, although experts believe the party is unlikely of joining the next government.

Survey Results and Political Landscape

The PVV, which previously achieved a shock top result and established a multi-party all-conservative coalition that collapsed within a year, is now slightly leading in the polls and is forecast to win between 24 to 28 MPs in the 150-member house of representatives.

Nevertheless, PVV's popularity has declined since the previous election, when it secured 37 seats. All major parties have stated they will not forming a government with the PVV leader, and who triggered the fall of the outgoing coalition in June over a dispute concerning his radical immigration plans.

Key Contenders and Projections

Following a election period dominated by topics such as migration, healthcare costs, and the country's severe housing shortage, the left-leaning GL/PvdA coalition, headed by ex-EU official Frans Timmermans, is placed a near second, expected to gain between 22 and 26 seats.

Also performing well is the centrist D66, projected to boost its representation nearly fivefold to 21 to 25 seats, while the centre-right CDA is expected to more than double its seat tally to between 18 and 22.

The outgoing cabinet members – which included the PVV, liberal-conservative VVD, populist Farmer-Citizen Movement (BBB), and centrist New Social Contract (NSC) – are all forecast to lose seats, with several experiencing significant declines.

Electoral System and Fragmentation

Under the proportional Dutch system, securing just 0.67% of the vote yields a party a seat in parliament. Among the two dozen political groups contesting the election – which include senior-focused parties, for youth, for animals, for a universal basic income, and sports parties – up to 16 may gain entry to the legislature.

This high degree of fragmentation ensures that no one party is ever likely to secure a majority, and Holland has been governed by coalitions – typically composed of four parties in recent governments – for over 100 years.

Post-Election Scenarios

The PVV leader claimed that "the democratic process would end" in the Netherlands if the PVV ends up as the biggest group yet is shut out of power. But, opponents and experts argue that winning the most seats does not guarantee government participation and that any coalition with a parliamentary majority is democratically valid.

Although the final outcome is uncertain and government negotiations may require months, political observers indicate that following the most extreme government in its recent history, the future government is expected to be a inclusive alliance headed by either the centre-left or centrist right.

Voting Process

Polling stations, such as those in the miniature city Madurodam in The Hague and the Anne Frank house in Amsterdam, opened at 7.30am (6.30am GMT) and will conclude at 9:00 PM. A usually accurate exit poll is anticipated soon after the polls close.

Once voting concludes, an official negotiator will test possible coalitions that could secure enough support in parliament. Potential partners will then draft a governing pact for the coming term and must undergo a confidence vote in the house before taking office.