From Grudging Respect to Disquiet: Moscow Considers the Fall of Venezuela's Leader.

A surprise raid against the capital city under cover of darkness, ending with the capture of the country's president. Within a day, the intervening power declares its intention to govern indefinitely.

That is precisely how Russia's president imagined his full-scale invasion of Ukraine unfolding in February 2022. In reality, it was the former US president who executed it in Venezuela, in a move widely condemned by many, spiriting away the Kremlin's longtime partner Nicolás Maduro, who is set to be tried in New York.

Public Fury, Private Calculations

In public, Russian officials have expressed fury, condemning the attack as a flagrant violation of international law and a dangerous precedent. Yet beyond the official statements, there is a feeling of grudging respect – and even envy – at the efficiency of a coup that Russia once planned, but failed to execute due to critical intelligence failures and Ukraine's strong resistance.

“The operation was carried out competently,” noted the Kremlin-aligned online channel Dva Mayora. “In all probability, this is exactly how our 'special military operation' was supposed to proceed: swift, dramatic and decisive. It’s difficult to imagine [Valery] Gerasimov planned to be engaged in combat for this long.”

Such commentary have fed a atmosphere of soul-searching among pro-war voices, with some publicly wondering how Russia's promised blitzkrieg in Ukraine morphed into a protracted and deadly conflict.

A pro-Kremlin tech entrepreneur, said she felt “shame” on behalf of her country given how brazen the American action seemed. “Within 24 hours, the US detained Venezuela's leader and apparently concluded his own 'military mission,’” she wrote.

Allies in Decline

For over twenty years, Venezuela sought to cultivate a network of anti-American allies – from Russia and China to Havana and Tehran – in the hope of forging a alternative bloc able to challenge Washington.

Yet despite Russia's foreign minister pledging support for the Caracas government as recently as late December, few serious analysts ever expected Moscow would come to his rescue.

Mired in Ukraine, Russia has, over the past year, seen other key allies lose influence or weaken sharply – from Syria's leader to an ever-more fragile Iran – laying bare the constraints of the Kremlin's reach.

“For Russia, the situation is profoundly awkward,” said a foreign policy analyst. “Venezuela is a key ally and ideological ally, and the two leaders have longstanding ties, leaving Moscow with no option but to express outrage. But offering any tangible support to a country so distant is simply not feasible – for practical and operational reasons.”

The Ukraine Priority

Analysts point to a more practical calculation. Putin's priority, experts note, is Ukraine – and maintaining a productive dialogue with the US administration on that issue far outweighs the destiny of Caracas.

“The Russian and American leaders are currently focused on a far more consequential issue for Moscow: Ukraine. And for all the Kremlin's goodwill towards Caracas, it is not going to jeopardize a much larger strategic game with a vital counterpart over what it sees as a secondary concern,” Lukyanov added.

Concrete Losses and Emerging Risks

Still, Russia's loss of Venezuela carries several tangible costs for Moscow. If a US-friendly government takes power in Caracas, American military specialists could gain access to large parts of the Venezuelan military's equipment, including sophisticated weaponry supplied by Russia.

This arsenal encompasses S-300VM anti-aircraft systems delivered in 2013, as well as an unknown quantity of Pantsir and Buk-M2 systems transferred in late 2025.

Moscow has also provided billions in loans to Venezuela, much of which it is now unlikely ever to be recovered.

A greater immediate worry for Moscow, however, is oil: US access to Venezuela's vast reserves could depress international oil prices, endangering one of Russia's most important sources of income.

“If our American 'partners' gain access to Venezuela’s oilfields, more than half of the world’s oil reserves will end up under their control,” wrote a prominent Russian billionaire. “And it appears their plan will be to ensure that the price of our oil does not exceed $50 a barrel.”

A Dark Optimism

Still, some in Moscow perceive a bleak kind of optimism. Trump's kidnapping of Maduro, they argue, could strike a decisive blow to the post-war global system and pave the way for a more nakedly 19th-century-style world – one where might, rather than rules, determines results.

“Team Trump is ruthless and pragmatic in pursuing its national interests,” wrote Dmitry Medvedev approvingly. “Ousting Maduro had nothing to do with drugs – only oil, and they freely acknowledge it. The principle of might makes right is clearly more powerful than international law.”