‘A Critical Scenario’: War on Iran Squeezes India's Cooking-Gas Supplies.

The repercussions of a conflict being fought nearly 3,000km away are now reaching India's kitchens.

As US-Israeli strikes on Iran disrupt energy deliveries through the Strait of Hormuz, availability of kitchen fuel are dwindling across India, pushing restaurants to shorten food lists, close earlier and in some cases close completely.

Social media is filled with video clips showing lines outside LPG distributors across Indian cities and towns as worries over fuel supplies escalate. Businesses appear the hardest struck: the biggest crunch is in restaurant kitchens.

"The situation is dire. Cooking gas simply isn't available," says a official of the an industry group.

Most food outlets run either on business-grade gas tanks or pipeline-supplied fuel, and the lack of supply are now being felt across the country. "A lot of restaurants have closed - some in northern India, many in the southern states. People are switching to solid fuels and induction stoves to keep kitchens going."

Localized Effects

In Mumbai, local news say up to a 20% of hotels and restaurants are already fully or partly shut as business fuel stocks dwindle. In the southern cities of Bangalore and Madras, some establishments say their fuel reserves have depleted with minimal reserves. "Coffee is the sole item we can prepare and no food items - it is nothing less than pathetic. Businesses are going to suffer," says a restaurant owner in Bengaluru.

Restaurant operators are seeking alternatives. "Food options are being cut, some are cutting lunch service and opening only for dinner," an industry representative says, adding that shutdowns are fluctuating as supplies ebb and flow. "A number of eateries in Delhi were shut yesterday - some have resumed operations. It's a fluid situation."

Retailers observe a spike in sales of electric cookers, with some saying they are selling out quickly.

Official Position

Yet, the government maintains there is sufficient stock.

India has more than 30 crore domestic LPG users and spokespersons say stocks are being prioritized to households as conflict-related stress from the Middle East conflict impact energy markets.

About six out of ten of India's LPG is brought in from overseas, and about nine out of ten of those shipments pass through the Strait of Hormuz, the strategic bottleneck now significantly disrupted by the hostilities.

The relevant department says that it ordered refineries to increase LPG output for household consumption, enhancing domestic production by about a quarter. Non-domestic supply is being reserved for critical services such as medical and academic centers, while distribution will be "equitable and clear".

"A degree of anxious stocking and stockpiling has been sparked by false reports. The standard supply timeline for household cylinders remains about two-and-a-half days," says a government spokesperson.

Spreading Anxiety

Now the worry is moving beyond kitchens. On online networks, a widely shared video from Chennai shows a long, snaking queue of motorbikes outside a gas outlet. "The panic is real," the text reads.

According to data from market experts, concerns about India's broader fuel supplies may be overstated.

India imports almost all of its crude oil. Around 50% of its crude oil imports - about 2.5 to 2.7 million barrels a day - travel through the waterway, largely from Middle Eastern nations.

Even if oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz are hindered, the shortfall could be partly offset by higher imports of discounted Russian crude, according to a refinery and oil markets analyst.

Based on maritime intelligence and credible market sources, incremental Russian crude imports could reach around a significant volume of barrels a day, reducing India's effective gap from exposure to the Strait of Hormuz to about 1.6 million barrels a day.

"Tens of millions of Russian oil barrels are currently floating on ships in the Indian Ocean and, with only two major Asian economies as major buyers, those barrels remain a ready fallback," an analyst noted.

Kitchen Fuel: The Primary Concern

The key weakness is cooking gas, experts note.

India consumes roughly one million barrels a day, but produces only 40-45% domestically, importing the rest - 80–90% through Hormuz.

Refineries can adjust processes to squeeze out a bit more LPG, but even a moderate increase would only raise domestic supply to about 47-50% of demand, leaving the country heavily reliant on imports.

In short: "Crude supply risk can be partially mitigated through diversification. Fuel availability remains relatively comfortable. Cooking gas supply is the key factor to watch in the coming weeks."

What may be heightening the anxiety on the ground is not just scarcity but uneven distribution - and the familiar spectre of stockpiling.

An industry representative alleges exploitative practices.

"Retailers are exploiting the situation - illegally trading canisters and selling them at a inflated price. In one small town, I heard of cylinders being accumulated and auctioned off."

For now, India's energy imports may be protected by worldwide shipping. But in restaurants across the country, the more immediate question is simple: how to get the next refill.